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Canadian Election Update: NDP Has Big Mo

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A flurry of polls were published on Monday, nearly all of them showing the Conservatives with diminished prospects for a majority government, the Liberals falling back slightly or treading water and the NDP enjoying a surge in voter support, at the expense of both the Bloc and the Liberals.

All these polls were conducted after the debates on April 12 and 13. The only tracking poll listed here is Nanos, which polls 400 respondents and aggregated the results of three days combined polling refreshed daily (each day the latest results are added and one day’s results dropped).

The Conservatives are hovering around their 2008 result of 38% while the Liberals seem to have lost a little ground from their 26% in the last election. The Bloc too is apparently bleeding support to the New Democrats who clearly have the most momentum according to this latest round of opinion sampling.

The regional sub samples in all these polls are subject to larger margins of error, but all seem to indicate an unprecedented rise for the NDP in Quebec. What that means in terms of seats is unclear.

These numbers at least partly reflect voters’ reaction to the debates, as well as the various campaigns. Note well they are al different to some degree (reflecting differences in methodologies I am told) and can’t all be right. With 12 days or so before the actual election, all kinds of dynamics can affect future polls as well as the final actual count of the votes. New Democrats and Conservatives appear to have most reason to take comfort from these results.

Coming soon: Strategies and tactics.
Update: Here is a Wikipedia site with all or most of the polls done for this election: Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2011

Written by slothropia

April 19th, 2011 at 7:22 am

Canadian Federal Election : Polling Baseline

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In recent days a number of major pollsters have come out with horse race polls for the Canadian federal parties. First there was Nanos on March 15 who found in February:

Conservatives 38.6%
Liberals 27.6%
NDP 19.9%
Bloc Quebecois 10.1%
Greens 3.8%

On March 23, Harris Decima found party support as follows:
Conservative Party 34%
Liberal Party 28%
New Democratic Party 17%
Bloc Quebecois 10%
Green Party 9%

Attentive observer will have noted (among many other things) that the Greens do better in the Decima poll in which pollees are prompted with party names, versus Nanos where they are not.

Nest up, Ipsos Reid, who on march 24 released these numbers:
Conservative Party 43%
Liberal Party 24%
New Democratic Party 16%
Bloc Quebecois 10%
Green Party 6%

This poll has a regional breakdown so follow the link for more info.

Yesterday Ekos came out with these numbers:

Conservative Party 35.3%
Liberal Party 28.1%
New Democratic Party 14.2%
Bloc Quebecois 9.7%
Green Party 10.6%

Then came today Angus Reid:

Conservative Party 39%
Liberal Party 25%
New Democratic Party 19%
Bloc Quebecois 10%
Green Party 7%

And finally Leger:
Conservatives 39%
Liberals 23%
NDP 19%
BQ 9%
Green 7%
Other 1%

They don’t quite agree, do they. And they can’t all be right. But of course, the numbers I pull out of my bung hole are just as valid as the fruits of this scientific polling. The only poll that really counts is the one taken on election day. And if anyone tries to tell you they know what will happen, call a mental health professional, cuz they are crazy and might be a danger to themselves or others.

In any case those are the polling numbers at the start of the campaign. There will soon be other polls with different numbers.

Update 3/28/2011, 8:30 pm CDT:
Abacus out today with a poll: C 35, L 27, N 20, BQ 8, G 7. Click on the link for regional and demographic breakdowns.

Also, Forum Research (who?) is out today with C 41, L24, N 19, BQ 10, and G 7. More info at the link.

Written by slothropia

March 26th, 2011 at 8:39 pm