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Canadian Election Update: NDP Has Big Mo

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A flurry of polls were published on Monday, nearly all of them showing the Conservatives with diminished prospects for a majority government, the Liberals falling back slightly or treading water and the NDP enjoying a surge in voter support, at the expense of both the Bloc and the Liberals.

All these polls were conducted after the debates on April 12 and 13. The only tracking poll listed here is Nanos, which polls 400 respondents and aggregated the results of three days combined polling refreshed daily (each day the latest results are added and one day’s results dropped).

The Conservatives are hovering around their 2008 result of 38% while the Liberals seem to have lost a little ground from their 26% in the last election. The Bloc too is apparently bleeding support to the New Democrats who clearly have the most momentum according to this latest round of opinion sampling.

The regional sub samples in all these polls are subject to larger margins of error, but all seem to indicate an unprecedented rise for the NDP in Quebec. What that means in terms of seats is unclear.

These numbers at least partly reflect voters’ reaction to the debates, as well as the various campaigns. Note well they are al different to some degree (reflecting differences in methodologies I am told) and can’t all be right. With 12 days or so before the actual election, all kinds of dynamics can affect future polls as well as the final actual count of the votes. New Democrats and Conservatives appear to have most reason to take comfort from these results.

Coming soon: Strategies and tactics.
Update: Here is a Wikipedia site with all or most of the polls done for this election: Opinion polling in the Canadian federal election, 2011

Written by slothropia

April 19th, 2011 at 7:22 am

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