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Here’s a cheery thought from Gerald Celente, founder and head of the Trends Research Institute.

The fake “recovery” was nice while it lasted, says famous apocalyptic forecaster Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Research Institute. But now the fun’s over, and we’re headed for what Celente describes as the “Greatest Depression.”

Specifically, the always startling Celente says the country is headed for rising unemployment, poverty, and violent class warfare as the government efforts to keep the economy going begin to fail.

I think Celente’s analysis and basis for his predictions on this matter are not too far removed from the Krugman school of political economy. If I may interpret and summarize, governments and the U.S. economic and political elites have poured gasoline on the fire by trying to solve the crisis top down. Unlike FDR, who attacked the Depression by throwing a lifeline to the middle and working classes, the suits in charge these days seem to think that if the big banks and Wall Street are happy, problem solved.

Celente’s prescription on the other hand is something FDR and Krugman could live with:

The crux of the problem, Celente argues, is that the middle class has been wiped out. America used to be a land of opportunity for all, where hard-working people could build their own small businesses in their own communities and live prosperous and fulfilling lives. But now a collusion of state and corporate interests that Celente describes as “fascism” have conspired to help only the biggest companies and the richest Americans. This has put a shocking amount of the country’s wealth in the hands of a privileged few and left the rest of the country to subsist on chicken-feed wages and low job satisfaction as Wal-Mart “associates” — or worse.

The answer, Celente says, is to bring back the laws that prevented huge companies from getting so big and powerful, and put some opportunity back in the hands of ordinary people. But doing that is going to take a while. And in the meantime, we’re headed for trouble.

I’m taking a bottle of Grey Goose out of the freezer and going back to bed. Somebody wake me after World War III.

Thanks to Raw Story for alerting me to this story. The whole interview is Yahoo Tech Ticker (linked to above) and here is a Yahoo article about wealth and inequality inthe U.S.

Food for thought on the current Depression found at Firedog Lake:

Thanks to Daily Kos for pointing me to this. Galbraith provides some well informed straight talk (real straight, talk, not the John McCain pandering kind) about deficits and the economy. Too bad the current “Democratic” Administration didn’t hire him, or someone similar, instead of Summers or Geitner.

Where have you gone Franklin Roosevelt, Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

Here is how the interview concludes:

JG: I have one more answer, though! Since the 1790s, how often has the federal government not run a deficit? Six short periods, all leading to recession. Why? Because the government needs to run a deficit, it’s the only way to inject financial resources into the economy. If you’re not running a deficit, it’s draining the pockets of the private sector. I was at a meeting in Cambridge last month where the managing director of the IMF said he was against deficits but in favor of saving, but they’re exactly the same thing! A government deficit means more money in private pockets.

The way people suggest they can cut spending without cutting activity is completely fallacious. This is appalling in Europe right now. The Greeks are being asked to cut 10 percent from spending in a few years. And the assumption is that this won’t affect GDP. But of course it will! It will cut at least 10 percent! And so they won’t have the tax collections to fund the new lower level of spending. Spain was forced to make the same announcement yesterday. So the Eurozone is going down the tubes.

On the other hand, look at Japan. They’ve had enormous deficits ever since the crash in 1988. What’s been the interest rate on government bonds ever since? It’s zero! They’ve had no problem funding themselves. The best asset to own in Japan is cash, because the price level is falling. It gets you 4 percent return. The idea that funding difficulties are driven by deficits is an argument backed by a very powerful metaphor, but not much in the way of fact, theory or current experience.

From Open Left

Obama’s grand accomplishment is not breaking a sweat while giving us a jobless recovery just like Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. His most-touted accomplishment is passing the REPUBLICAN alternative to HillaryCare from 15 years ago, but meanwhile tens of millions of people go without work, while homes continue being lost at an incredible rate, (The good news from USA Today: “Foreclosure rates up by smallest amount in 4 years”.)

I will never vote for a Republican at any level, but I simply do not understand why Obama is working so hard to lose my support.

Holy majoley!! I look up from my needlepoint and discover that I haven’t posted anything in almost three weeks. Bad blogger!

It was not intentional. I wanted to blog, but I have been kept busy with other projects, job hunting, trying to put the garden in and other miscellaneous blah blah. I’m not getting paid for this you know.

Now that I am here, I have a brief observation to make about Obama’s auto industry moves yesterday.

I don’t know whether or not GM or Chrysler will survive this mess, though it appears that Chrysler will soon join American Motors and Studebaker in car company heaven. I don’t know whether what Obama is doing is good for the auto industry or the larger economy. But if anybody has a better idea (besides letting the companies fail) I sure would like to hear about it.

Public opinion across the country seems to be n Obama’s favor on matters economic, so he has room to maneuver. However, I fear that he will pay a political price, at least in the short term in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. That may not be fair, but who said either life or politics were fair.

Cross posted at Daily Kos.

This is about right.

Ackroyd does look a lot like Boehner doesn’t he? Maybe a little heavier but close enough for satire.

Further to this point, today’s Frank Rich column in the NY Times is worth reading. Check out the whole column and the polling data Rich provides:

But, as he (Obama) said in Fort Myers last week, he will ultimately be judged by his results. If the economy isn’t turned around, he told the crowd, then “you’ll have a new president.” The stimulus bill is only a first step on that arduous path. The biggest mistake he can make now is to be too timid. This country wants a New Deal, including on energy and health care, not a New Deal lite. Far from depleting Obama’s clout, the stimulus battle instead reaffirmed that he has the political capital to pursue the agenda of change he campaigned on.

Republicans will also be judged by the voters. If they want to obstruct and filibuster while the economy is in free fall, the president should call their bluff and let them go at it. In the first four years after F.D.R. took over from Hoover, the already decimated ranks of Republicans in Congress fell from 36 to 16 in the Senate and from 117 to 88 in the House. The G.O.P. is so insistent that the New Deal was a mirage it may well have convinced itself that its own sorry record back then didn’t happen either.

Don’t just take Frank’s word for it. Check out this polling data from Research 2K, posted at Daily Kos.

So this week, the Republicans are receiving a failing grade from the American electorate. But a week is a long time in politics. Six months is even longer. In six months time we may have a clearer view of the efficacy of STIMPY (the stimulus bill). Right now though, the polling tells us that most Americans are glad it was passed and glad that Obama is President and in a position to sign the bill into law tomorrow.

If I were an ambitious freshman Congressman from a traditionally red district in a heavily blue state I would be worried about the politics of STIMPY. If it works (and it will boost the GDP) the congressional Democrats and the President get the glory. Republicans will become more marginalized than they already are.

Consider these Research 2000 numbers

In the Midwest, which includes Illinois, Republicans have a favorable/unfavorable deficit of 33 percentage points. The Obama party is up by 23. I guess the GOP has the Dems where they want them now, eh?

Unless Obama destroys the U.S. economy, our hypothetical young congress critter will have much difficulty running for statewide office anytime soon.

To refocus on the bigger picture, Obama and the Democrats have momentum, a strong wind behind them. To paraphrase Frank Rich, Obama has a huge pile of political capital and a pretty good idea of what he needs to do with it.

And if he fails? If the economy collapses? The Republican id, neo confederate, laissez faire, theocratic, violent, racist, sadistic, elitist, will be at last freed to slouch toward Bethlehem for its long awaited birth.

Cross posted at Daily Kos.

Greetings from Central Illinois. Specifically from the 18th congressional district of the Prairie State. The (Fightin’?) 18th is composed of the Peoria metropolitan area and a whole lot of rural.

Here in the 18th District, Caterpillar is the largest employer – or was until they laid off over 20,000 workers. The President seems to understand the importance of Caterpillar to the economy of Peoria and will be visiting one of that company’s facilities tomorrow, Thursday, February 12.

In fact, President Obama will be joined on Air Force one by Caterpillar CEO Jim Owen. Owen, by the way, is a member of Obama’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

The President’s visit to Peoria is part of his push for passage of the economic stimulus bill that came out of a House/Senate conference today and will almost certainly receive final passage in a matter of days.

The 18th has long been a GOP district, and Peoria was once represented in Congress by a founder of that party, Abraham Lincoln. Illinois 18 is currently represented in by Aaron Schock, a Republican. Schock’s predecessor was Ray Lahood, now President Obama’s Secretary of Transportation.

Before being elected to the U.S. House of Representatives, Schock was a State Representative fro an inner city district in Peoria, A Republican neglected in a Democratic district, so at the time, Schock clearly had some cross over appeal.

Then he ran for Congress and took the standard GOP neocon positions in the 2008 primary. One of his first votes in the House was on the Ledbetter Act for pay equity. Schock voted against the bill along with all but three House Republicans.

Schock also voted against the House version of the current stimulus bill. Again, that bill has been reported out of conference. It is going to pass unless a giant meteor strikes the earth and we all join the dinosaurs. Will Representative Schock continue to vote the way John Boehner and Rush Limbaugh tell him to, or will vote aye and join Jim Owen, Ray Lahood and the thousands of his constituents who are desperate to get back to work? Would it help if he got a call from from fellow Illinoisan, President Barack Obama?

Cross posted at Daily Kos.
This blog post from Paul Krugman is worth considering in light of what is happening in the Senate this weekend:

Now the centrists have shaved off $86 billion in spending — much of it among the most effective and most needed parts of the plan. In particular, aid to state governments, which are in desperate straits, is both fast — because it prevents spending cuts rather than having to start up new projects — and effective, because it would in fact be spent; plus state and local governments are cutting back on essentials, so the social value of this spending would be high. But in the name of mighty centrism, $40 billion of that aid has been cut out.

My first cut says that the changes to the Senate bill will ensure that we have at least 600,000 fewer Americans employed over the next two years.

The real question now is whether Obama will be able to come back for more once it’s clear that the plan is way inadequate. My guess is no. This is really, really bad.

Atrios found this for me and his billions of other readers.

Wanna know the difference between a “moderate” or Blue Dog Democrat and a Republican?

A Republican will face you as he plunges the knife into your gut. Blue Dogs will stab you in the back.

Is it not time for America and the Democratic party to stop letting the tail wag the dog (ironic use of metaphor intentional)?

Here’s hoping an effective stimulus bill comes out of Congress.

According to the The Rolling Stones, YCAGWYW:

Cross posted at Daily Kos.

I’m losing patience with “moderate” Democrats in Congress. And I’m sick to death of the nitpicking criticism of the stimulus bill. I understand GOPers losing their minds over spending on contraception and sexual health, but what’s up with Democrats who would support such measures but not in this bill.

Econ 101: Any government spending is stimulative.

Words of Wisdom from Wetmachine:

We are not helpless. We will not wait for Obama or Harry Reid or Nancy Pelosi or anyone else to save the stimulus bill from the conservative noise machine and the business as usual culture. We will fight back, and show them that America wants real change. Click here to get the phone number for your Senators and Representative. Call and tell them: “Stop the failed policies of the last eight years! Government spending creates jobs, tax cuts don’t! Pass the stimulus bill without any more presents to big business. No more tax cuts or other tax ‘incentives’.”

Time for us to decide if we will be the Generation of the Desert or if we will be the Generation of Joshua. Will we die in the wilderness, or dare to cross the Jordan into the Promised Land?

To all my visitors – I mean both of you – please note the link to Senate contact info and call right now. Operators are standing by.